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Wholesale Used Vehicle Prices Drop This Month – Remarketing

Vans posted the largest seasonally adjusted price increase at 14.5%, while the two non-luxury car segments again topped the industry as a whole in terms of seasonally adjusted year-on-year gains. ‘other.

Source: Mannheim

Wholesale prices for used vehicles (on a blended, mileage and seasonally adjusted basis) fell 3.6% from July in the first 15 days of August, according to the Vehicle Value Index. Manheim opportunity, which fell to 211.6, but still up 8.8. % from August 2021.

The unadjusted price change in the first half of August was a 2% decline from July, leaving the unadjusted average price up 6.6% year-over-year, according to Mannheim figures released Aug. 17.

Over the past two weeks, Manheim Market Report (MMR) prices have seen above-normal and consistent declines, resulting in a 1.2% cumulative decline in the three-year MMR index, which represents the largest model year cohort at auction. During the first 15 days of August, the retention of MMR, which is the average price difference from the current MMR, averaged 98.2%, indicating that valuation models are ahead of market price. The average daily sales conversion rate of 51.3% during the first half of August was up from July’s daily average of 46.8%, but still below the typical conversion rate during this period. the year.

The latest trends in key indicators suggest that used vehicle wholesale values ​​are likely to experience declines in the second half of the month.

All major market segments recorded higher seasonally adjusted prices year over year in the first half of August. Vans posted the largest increase at 14.5%, while the two non-luxury car segments again topped the industry as a whole in terms of seasonally adjusted year-over-year gains. Compared to July, all major segments saw price declines, with SUVs and pickups dropping the most and vans and compact cars the least. Seasonal adjustment amplified the declines, but all major segments recorded unadjusted price declines in the first 15 days of August.

Retail and wholesale day supply remains high

Using estimates based on vAuto data as of August 15, the retail days supply used was 47 days, down four days from the end of July. Day supply increased by eight days year-over-year and two days from the same week in 2019. Based on Manheim sales and inventory data, Manheim estimates that wholesale supply ended July at 31 days, up five days from the end of June and up nine days year-on-year. As of August 15, wholesale supply was 30 days down one day from late July and up eight days year on year and five days higher than 2019. One day supply above normal indicates conditions that favor buyers over sellers.

Rental risk prices see smaller year-over-year increase

The average price of units at rental risk sold at auction during the first 15 days of August rose 16.8% year over year. Rental risk prices are up 0.1% compared to July as a whole. Average rental risk unit mileage in the first half of August (at 57,988 miles) was down 17.2% from a year ago and 1.4% month over month. ‘other.

Consumer sentiment sees further increases in August

August’s initial reading of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan rose 7% to 55.1. The increase is due to improved future expectations as the view of current conditions has diminished. The main concern in the data was that the inflation rate expected five years ahead rose to 3% from 2.9% in July, but consumer expectations for inflation over the next year fell to 5% against 5.2% in July.

Consumer opinion on the terms of vehicle purchases has deteriorated as opinion on prices and interest rates has deteriorated. The only time consumers felt worse about car loan interest rates than they do today was in 1980-82, when rates were much higher. Morning Consult’s daily consumer sentiment index rose 4.9% in the first 15 days of August. The index improved with lower gasoline prices. The national average unleaded price was $3.95 as of August 15, down 21% from the June high.

Originally posted on Vehicle Remarketing